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Hung parliament: be careful what you wish for...
Posted by Simon Cooke (@simonmagus)
Tuesday, 9th February 2010
On 23rd March 1977, the Liberal Party – then led by David Steel – entered into an agreement with the minority Labour government of Jim Callaghan. The agreement – a staggering sell-out by Steel that was dubbed the “Lib Lab Pact” – tells us something about how a hung parliament might operate were we to have one again in the future.
Under the agreement – ostensibly done “in pursuit of economic recovery” – the Liberals asked for direct elections to the European Parliament to be under a “proportional” system and for “progress” on devolution. The Party got neither of these things and there appears to have been little value to the meetings between the Liberal’s “economic spokesman” and the Chancellor or cosy chats between the Boy David and Sunny Jim. Getting a couple of housing bills through (something that would have happened anyway) seems a big price to pay for propping up Labour.
Leaving aside the disastrous legacy of the Pact – with the wrecking of public finances, the disguising of industrial decline through direct subsidy and the continued preference for a corporate state approach to economic policy (aka beer and sandwiches) – it indicates the most likely approach of the Liberal Democrats. Rather than demanding cabinet positions (why take a position in a cabinet knowing you’ll be outvoted most of the time), the party will demand support for specific policies.
Indeed, despite protesting to the contrary, Nick Clegg has already indicated the price of Lib Dem support. As ever, Clegg is showing his leg and fluttering his eyelashes at the other leaders but he knows that most of his activists will want to sell out to Labour whereas his voters would rather do a deal with Cameron. What Clegg does know, however, is that doing what his activists want and attacking the Tories will cost him votes. And Nick might even have noticed that the Liberal vote dropped from 18% to 13% between 1974 and 1979.
If I were advising Nick (and he has yet to offer me this job) I would tell him to get close to Cameron – even to saying a Tory-led Government would be better for Britain. Why, you ask? Because, the Lib Dems best chance of holding their position comes in winning those seats in Bristol, Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle where they are competing with Labour. With the odd exception like Eastbourne, the Lib Dems will be losing seats to the Conservatives regardless of the Party’s policy position. And getting close to Labour – the preferred strategy it seems – is a guarantee that those rural seats in the South West will turn blue.
