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What if...the Greens do get their first MP elected?
Posted by Darrell Goodliffe
Wednesday, 30th December 2009
A couple of blogs have commented on the recent ICM poll for Brighton Pavillion which shows that the Green Party could be successful at getting Caroline Lucas (pictured) elected to Westminster next year. Mike Smithson speculates that it might show the possibility of tactical anti-Conservative voting. Meanwhile, Anthony Wells unpicks the poll but feels that it is ‘basically kosher’.
If the Greens do get an elected MP (and lest we forget UKIP is also in with a shout against John Bercow) then it will not immediately signify a massive cultural shift to a multi-party system and the hegemony of the big three will not immediately vanish.
However, it will further entrench multi-party politics at levels where it already exists; notably in council and European elections. Additionally, where they are already strong at this level it will give them more electoral credibility as challengers for Westminster depending on how effective their local parties are on the follow-through.
For the Liberal Democrats will no longer be able to see themselves as the sole repository of the protest vote. Smithson sees it as potentially good news in three-way marginals, in that the Lib Dems might benefit from anti-Conservative switching, but this will depend on how successful they are in convincing people David Cameron’s ‘love bombs’ are without substance.
Meanwhile for Labour it will present the terrifying prospect of a minor squeeze which would neutralise any advantage given to them by UKIP poaching Conservative voters from the right (something that may well become more significant the election after next).
